playbyplay.football

UCLA Bruin Sports Analytics

4th down in overtime

Set the spot and the distance. The engine plays out going for it, kicking and punting under the 2025 overtime rules and makes the call.

Situation

Field. Drag to move the ball. OWN OPP

Ball on midfieldDriving toward OPP

Distance
4th & 5
Overtime possession
Team, kicking and weather

Defaults are league average. Change them to model a specific matchup.

Your offense
Their defense
Special teams
Game
Weather and venue
OT 1st poss Tied 4th & 5 Midfield

Thinking

Loading the models. After a quiet spell the free server takes a few seconds to wake up.

  1. Go for it –%  
  2. Field goal –%  
  3. Punt –%  

Chance to win the game with each choice. Bars run 0 to 100%, tick at 50.

Why

ChoiceOutcomeOddsWin

Same distance, every spot

GoKickPunt

How the call is made

Each choice leads to a few outcomes: convert or get stopped, make or miss, a punt that lands somewhere. The engine estimates how likely each outcome is, then how likely you are to win from where it leaves the game. The call is the choice with the best expected chance to win.

Overtime is valued drive by drive under the 2025 rules: both teams get the ball, then the next score wins. That is why field position matters so much. Give the ball back at your own 10 and the other team only needs a field goal.

Conversion
XGBoost on NFL 4th downs, blended with league rates by distance
Field goal
XGBoost with weather and venue, tapered past 57 yards
Punt
Where the next drive really starts, returns included
Drives
How 22,000 NFL drives ended by starting spot, checked against every overtime drive since 2016

Not modeled: the 10-minute clock, regular-season ties, and individual punters. Built by Eshaan Dhavala, Abhi Kumar, Keith Bui, Josh Sujo, Maia Salti, Dillon Maheshwari, Andrew Yang and Gonzalo Merino Sanchez.